Strategists Bo Meunier and Thomas Mucha analyze the impacts of AI, shifting supply changes, and evolving consumer behavior on emerging markets.
Strategists Bo Meunier and Thomas Mucha analyze the impacts of AI, shifting supply changes, and evolving consumer behavior on emerging markets.
1:00 – Top trend: AI
3:10 - Semiconductor supply chain
8:00 – The auto industry and US tariffs
10:30 – Domestic markets and differentiation
13:30 – Real estate and construction
15:35 – Focus on China
20:50 – Deep dive on Mexico
24:00 – Strong fundamentals in central Europe
25:30 – A weaker USD and the end of US exceptionalism?
Bo Meunier: Emerging markets has a very diverse consumer base. Some of the countries are less affected with tariff and less affected with economic activity — you still see lower employment rate and still decent growth. Other markets, like China, Mexico, you are seeing more impact on the employment. So, with the consumption sector, what we are seeing is structural growth is still in place despite the tariff uncertainty.
Thomas Mucha: Since early this year, when the first shots in the global trade war were fired by the Trump administration, emerging markets have taken off. Now, as of this recording, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is outperforming both the MSCI All Country World and the S&P 500. Why is this? Well, tariff uncertainty has weakened the US dollar, stabilized inflation in some developing countries, and it's renewed global investor interest across emerging markets. And while no EM conversation is complete without China, the story here is decidedly broader. So, joining me to discuss the EM investment and geopolitical environments is an in-house expert and a returning guest,
Bo Meunier. Bo is a portfolio manager on our EM equities team and a respected veteran of the firm. Bo, it's great to have you back on WellSaid.
Bo Meunier: Thank you Thomas. Great to be here.
Thomas Mucha: Now Bo, of course emerging markets are many markets with different cultures, different characteristics, different industries, and, of course, different relationships to the US and China. They're also home to companies that are vital to the global supply chains of several key industries, including a number of critical sectors that we talk so much about on this podcast as they relate to great power competition and other geopolitical dynamics. So, I'd like to start, Bo, with your thoughts on EM contributions to some of these sectors, and then maybe we can drill down to regional markets.
So, let's start with a very top-of-mind industry, artificial intelligence and a related AI infrastructure boom. How is the role of companies across emerging markets evolving in the AI space?
Bo Meunier: Emerging markets play a very critical role in the AI industry development, both on the hardware side as well as on the software side. On the hardware side, almost 75% of global market share of semiconductor memory products are produced by emerging market companies. So, those are a key part of the supply chain in the AI industry.
Thomas Mucha: The Trump administration says it wants to, do more onshore manufacturing, including, as you say, the most strategic of sectors, semiconductors. Now, Bo, you've been to semiconductor fabrication plants in Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea. Given these experiences, given your knowledge of the industry, how realistic do you think it is for the US to disintermediate these EM leaders, especially in such a big critical part of where this industry is going?
Bo Meunier: So, onshoring is definitely a trend, but we're not sure how meaningful and how fast the trend would be. If you look at the magnitude of change, most of the supply chains will still remain in where they are. It is extremely capital-intensive industry. Scale does matter. On top of that, the supply of skilled laborers, the manufacturing techniques, and the rest of the supply chain proximity also play a key role in this. And, even though US is the largest end user on a single-country basis, the rest of factories are not here. When we talk to Taiwan semiconductor companies — fabulous companies — they're definitely adding capacity in the US, but what they are seeing is the cost is twice as much as what they produce in Taiwan. So, someone has to bear that cost.
Thomas Mucha: Who's going to bear that higher cost?
Bo Meunier: I think it will be shared across some of the end users who are willing to pay up for the leading technology, will be paying for premium, to some of the US, reimbursement for the manufacturing in Taiwan. Some of the US subsidies for Taiwan semiconductor companies in terms of manufacturing here would help to reduce that cost.
Thomas Mucha: So, this strategic decoupling across semiconductors, we're talking years, decades? What's your view on what this ultimately looks like?
Bo Meunier: I would say years. It could potentially be decades. This is definitely an area that other countries, using China as example, is not willing to give up. China is definitely lagging US semiconductor capabilities from the start. But they have been investing a lot more in the area, both on the hardware as well as the software side.
With the political uncertainty, what we're seeing is actually the investment desire in China has increased, if anything. And that will come not from the tail end of the supply chain, but from the equipment that's used for manufacturing chips as well as the whole manufacturing process. The whole supply chain China is trying to replicate — is it generating return, that's commercially viable? Not there yet, but it's of such a strategic importance for China. We're seeing a lot more dollars continue to be put in. And as the equity investor, we are also seeing some opportunities along that increase supply chain and CapEx as well.
Thomas Mucha: It's clearly strategic for every country involved, particularly the US and China. Has there been anything from the Trump administration, in the policy world, particularly around semiconductors, that has surprised you or the companies that you follow?
Bo Meunier: In terms of surprise from the current policy, I would say limiting the advanced equipment, China, makes sense, but I think that came a little later, because you, basically allowed a lot of Chinese companies to be able to build up inventory, both on the equipment front as well as on the chips front. When we talked to the Chinese data center, cloud service providers, the companies who are training their AI, they all say that they have a decent data center to use. A lot of that is based on the GPUs they were able to power up before the restrictions. So that would be probably one surprise.
And the second one would also be, the Chinese companies’ ability to stack a lot of the data center chips in order to generate function. That surprise is more in China's speed in adopting AI. So, without the good hardware, they were able to catch up a lot more on the software front, on the application and training front. So that's one thing I would say China is doing much better than probably people have given the benefit of. Of course, with the DeepSeek, announcement earlier this year, people are able to get a peek of what's really going on in the AI world in China. But even back seven, eight years ago, when we were talking to companies, both public and private, that is the area they're investing a lot more. China always have a lot of data, public and private data. People are more open to new applications and less concerned privacy. So those broader factors make the application side of AI a lot more user friendly and developer friendly. So, I think that's what will likely help China to win.
Thomas Mucha:That's interesting. I'd like to switch to another sector in which EMS are critical. That's automotive. As a native Detroiter, I'm personally aware of this phenomenon. I've been growing up with this my whole life. So, Mexico, Brazil, India, and other countries are key not only for the auto parts production, but also for raw materials like lithium and cobalt. So again, Bo, I'm wondering about the long-term prospects here for EM auto-related industries, including, of course, the effects of tariffs?
Bo Meunier: EM companies play a critical part of the auto supply chain. And that goes from the mechanical parts to the OEM. But more importantly, EM companies in general have been playing a lot of the leading role in R&D spending for the next generation. So we can talk about, not just ICEs, but if we think about EVs and more importantly, the recent “smartification” of autos, EM companies in Korea, in China, are all playing a key role in the supply of some of the key materials. Tariff on auto is still uncertain. We'll have more clarity down the road. Let's start with the traditional ICE. Korean automakers are gaining market share globally as well as in the US. So with the tariff, what are the Korean companies doing? Since US is an important part of their sales, they have been adding additional capacity in the US. So that's what one type of response in terms tariff is, if USA is a critical market, you add capacity here.
Thomas Mucha: Which is one of the things that the Trump administration is trying to enact.
Bo Meunier: Exactly. So that is effective. But then there's another part of the auto industry. If you think about China, you, if we think about electric vehicle, China is becoming a much bigger player of the electric cars. And US, for historical regulation reason, has not being a large market for China. So in this particular case with the tariff, Chinese companies are basically, staying away from the US market and manufacturing in certain markets, which benefit, for example, Central Europe, Latin America, where the manufacturing base is both on the production front as well as some of their targeted sales down the road.
Thomas Mucha: That's perhaps an unintended consequence of the Trump tariff policy.
Bo Meunier: Yeah, it's basically pushing some of those companies away.
Thomas Mucha: Beyond the role of EM firms in global markets, I'd like to ask you about the growth in domestic markets. You've alluded to that already. And the first thing I think of is the consumer, of course — many EMs have a growing middle class, more spending power. We're seeing shifts in consumption patterns and the like. So, from your perspective, how is consumer behavior, especially in the current global macro environment, affecting domestically focused companies across EMs? What kind of opportunities is that presenting for you?
Bo Meunier: Emerging market is a has a very diverse consumer base. Some of the countries are less affected with tariff and less affected with economic activity — you still see lower employment rate, and still decent growth. Other markets, like China, Mexico, you are seeing more impact on the employment. So, with the consumption sector, what we are seeing is structural growth is still in place despite the tariff uncertainty. And what do I mean by structural growth? For example, the shift from offline to online has already happened in the US, but with a weak infrastructure of existing offline retailers, we're seeing more of the shift into online in the emerging market. So, it's a trend that is still continuing. We're seeing that in Brazil. We're seeing that in India. We're seeing that in Korea continuously. And strong leaders in those markets are still gaining not only market share, but also unit economics. So, that's definitely one area is the structure shift. Another one will be new services provided, using China's example, when young people unemployment rate is high, we saw the development of online entertainment industry — a lot more users, but also they're willing to pay. And that is a behavior change, different versus 20 years ago. So you get can companies with higher RPO, with a higher volume increase. And, as a result of that, gaining returns from the developing of the consumer.
Thomas Mucha: But you are seeing a lot of differentiation across the board in terms of consumer behavior on a country-by-country basis?
Bo Meunier: I would say that the behavior change is more based on the channel change. So, for example, the shipment into lower-price items, more, value for money was something that we saw in China. In India right now, we are going through a slight weakness, in the consumer demand. So, also, consumers are scaling back some of the discretionary spending. So, definitely we're seeing, different opportunities. On top of that, some of the countries with election cycles, which impact the job market, are also seeing slight weakness there as well.
Thomas: So you have to know all these countries pretty intently?
Bo Meunier: Yes. We do have a team of analysts who are spending a lot of time kicking the tires to identify what is happening on the ground.
Thomas Mucha: It's a big world.
Bo Meunier: It is, yeah.
Thomas Mucha: All right, Bo, what about real estate? Obviously, the Chinese real estate sector has been a significant drag on that economy. But what about other countries? You know, with interest rates and inflation fairly steady, what's your take on real estate and construction, for that matter, across EMS?
Bo Meunier: Similar to consumer, real estate is also a very local market. What we have identified are some of the opportunities that's very unique. If you think about in the Middle East, the number of business license, for example, in Abu Dhabi and Dubai has increased from 50,000 five years earlier to over 150,000 recently. So that means it's a lot more population inflow, a lot more business formation, a much stronger demand for real estate on the commercial as well as residential front. So, we were able to identify companies that have land bank that, supply to that increase in demand. In Mexico, there are a lot of industrial warehouses, industrial companies that have built up facilities there with the tariff uncertainties. So, the money has been spent, but leasing activity is much slower, utilization rate is lower. So, this is a case where you could see asset utilization improving, return improving. And stocks are trading at very cheap valuations. So that's why we find attractive opportunities there as well. And if you think about India again, in major cities, the supply market has consolidated. So, with limited supply and steady growth, in terms of business formation and consumer demand, we're also seeing a pickup in occupancy and pickup in utilization.
I guess I can't talk about real estate without mentioning China. That is a market where we're seeing, residential market remains weak. But, at the second derivative basis, slowing down is more manageable. So, it's not as bad as a few years ago in terms of pricing correction. On the commercial front, that market remains to be weak.
Thomas Mucha: I'm picking up on the theme of differentiation across your entire book here, Bo. Let's spend a couple of minutes apiece. I'm going to dig down into some of the largest EMS, both from a top-down and bottom-up perspective. So again, let's go back to China. In your view, Bo, what's happening or what's most important from a policy standpoint, and what should investors know about the current investment environment in China?
Bo Meunier: We’ll start with the top-down side. The geopolitical risks that you've been highlighting for many years still remain in place. And that's unfortunately it's not getting better. But what we are seeing in terms of change in policy will be the domestic policy. China is becoming more focused on economic activities, more focus on supporting the local business. And that is a very important policy shift. So that is one major change that I would say even two years ago, last year, we did not get a sense of, so that's the first one. Is policy becoming more supportive of economic activity?
Thomas Mucha: What do you think's driving that? Is that, some of the external, pressures from the Trump administration? Is it internal structural problems in the Chinese economy? We've already talked about real estate. Is it demographics? What do you think is driving a lot of that?
Bo Meunier: I would say it's a combination of both because structurally we know China is coming to a stage of its demographics, which is real estate slowing down — a slower run rate compared to before. So, it's already slowing growth environment. On top of that, with the tariff discussion, that's a shock to external demand. Even though export is not a major part of economic activities, it does hire a lot of people. So, it's a number that they pay a lot of attention to. And Chinese government has a lot of economic data that they keep an eye on, I'm sure, to change in policies because they see the inflection point of how weak things are, and the necessity to make changes.
Thomas Mucha: Do you expect this consumer support to continue for quite some time?
Bo Meunier: Yes, broadly speaking, whether it’s CapEx, infrastructure that they still need or, consumer trade-in for goods that, bringing forward some of the demand, in general, this policy support on consumption will still be in place. But I would say the policy support is not just in consumption — people buying additional cars or buying a new air conditioner. Some of the other policy shift is also related to how people perceive their asset. More than 50% of the Chinese household wealth are in real estate. And this is clearly a sector that's not going to grow anymore. And within China, people know that, that's the base case. So where would the money go to? China is a high-saving country. We know there's a lot of deposit at a banking system. The real rates has been coming down steadily. Bank deposit, and consumer are looking for an alternative. What we are seeing a positive development starting this year, is really the increase allocation back to equity market; equity market allocation is less than 15% is compared to real estate is a lot smaller. An interesting part of the capital market development is adding Hong Kong to part of the China capital market overall map. What we're seeing, the trend, is first with the US-China tariff negotiation and uncertainty on capital market, a lot more US-listed Chinese companies moving back to Hong Kong to do listing. But recently, what we're seeing now is also a lot of the leading Chinese companies in A-share market are now doing dual listing in Hong Kong to facilitate their global growth. And the policy that China has been setting is very supportive of this. So Hong Kong can be a beneficiary out of this, development on the capital market.
Thomas Mucha: That's interesting. So you started with the top-down perspective here, Bo. And you know how the government is trying to support various aspects of the economy. What does that mean for someone like you, bottom-up investor who's looking for opportunities? How is that impacting your opportunity set?
Bo Meunier: So, over the past few years, we've been seeing more attractive China opportunities. And it would reflect in a few different areas. First one is capital allocation. China wasn't a good place for capital allocators. People were just spending money on CapEx and regarding very little for returns. But what we're seeing now for the past two years is really increased dividend payout ratio, increased share buybacks which benefit equity shareholders. We're looking for free cash flow rich companies that are willing to pay back to shareholders. So that's one market. But another one is the innovation that's still ongoing. We talk about the tech, these are areas that China is, spending a lot both on public and private front in terms of R&D and investing. Another area will be the health care. Licensing out of a Chinese drug discovery has becoming more pronounced this year. And this is a market similar to manufacturing goods. China has the human talent — a lot more engineers, a lot more researchers graduate from college each year, has a large domestic market to train or to do the trial, exercise. So, the time to market is much faster there.
Thomas Mucha: Okay. So obviously a lot of opportunities. I could talk to you for three hours about China alone, but I do want to move on to some other EM countries here. You've mentioned Mexico a couple of times. Mexico is interesting to me because it's a key trading partner of both the US and of China, and puts it in a bit of a tricky geopolitical position. Mexico now has a charismatic and pretty pragmatic new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, who seems to be working well with the Trump administration. So, with regard to Mexico, what do you like, and what are you more cautious about?
Bo Meunier: You're absolutely right. Their new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, has proven to be much more positive, both for domestic and international policies. I was there on the ground in April meeting these companies. Many companies were possibly surprised with the policies that her administration has been introduced. With the tariff uncertainty, I think that is still an overhang, for Mexico. But we think they could come out as a winner in this tariff negotiation versus people's expectation. Mexico was an early focus for tariff negotiation. And many goods, for example, autos, on the surface level, still have a high tariff, but what people may not realize is, a lot of the goods sold from Mexico is under the USMCA trade deal. So that's about half of the exports. So, the effective tariff rate is a lot less. And the negotiation for USMCA is expected to be concluded again next year, and potentially we could see more items being included. So, starting with the headline, tariff on Mexico is not exactly what all companies are paying. There's also practical evidence. What we're seeing is the US import from Mexico actually has actually increased when we talk to companies. So, this is despite the concern that people may have on the tariff. The reason is when we talk to some of the US companies who are operating in Mexico, the labor cost is still much cheaper, the production cost too much cheaper. So, all in, with a reasonable tariff, Mexico remains still competitive. And this is for short term and for long term.
Thomas Mucha: It's interesting because, from my perspective, the geopolitical perspective, I see Mexico playing a key role in what the Trump administration is trying to accomplish. And what I hear from them a lot is a, you know, Fortress North America policy orientation, in which Mexico is going to play, along with Canada, a very important part, especially as great power competition intensifies. So, it'll be very interesting to see how the US-Mexico trade and economic relationship develops, particularly vis-a-vis China. And, you know, how do you think about that?
Bo Meunier: From what we are seeing, Mexican companies are gaining shares from China, from Southeast Asian companies. So, this fortification of North America makes a lot of sense. I think what Mexico may have to give up is to make sure that they are not allowing Chinese companies using Mexico as a transit point for export into the US market. If they can prove to be effective in that measure, then genuinely, goods produced in Mexico could probably enjoy attractive tariff price.
Thomas Mucha: We'll see how the USMCA plays out. Now, Bo, another interesting and sometimes overlooked EM group is central Europe. You have mentioned it already today. Now, how are these markets affected by the strategic decoupling between the US and China, as well as by this accelerating reorientation of the global supply chain?
Bo Meunier: Central Europe is one of the underappreciated beneficiary of this decoupling. They are the biggest beneficiary of fiscal investment expansion by the European Union. Especially if you think about, the German infrastructure package. A lot of that could go into central Europe country.
Thomas Mucha: Poland in particular.
Bo Meunier: Exactly — Poland and Hungary. And on top of that, when we think about the supply chains from Asia, using China as example, Hungary is becoming the European center point for EV production because they are attracting the FDI, both from Chinese battery manufacturers, Chinese OEMs, as well as South Korean, many, battery manufacturers. So the FDI from Asian countries into Hungary for the European market has been increasing. So that's another beneficiary in addition to the overall European expansion. If you're using Hungary as an example, is extremely healthy economy. Unemployment rate is a 4%, salary increase at 9%, and the consumption is still going strong.
Thomas: So good fundamentals as well.
Bo Meunier: Exactly.
Thomas Mucha: All right, Bo, I'd like to wrap up, sort of with an overall view of EMs, again in the context of great power competition, and maybe the potential end of US exceptionalism that we're hearing so much about. Now, if we stay on this geopolitical and policy path that you and I have talked about for years, these dynamics likely mean a structurally weaker US dollar, structurally higher US Treasury yields, maybe, in the future. So how are these potential — let's call them paradigm shifts — in the global economy changing the way that you approach investing in emerging markets?
Bo Meunier: A weaker US dollar historically has been good for the emerging market asset class, both in terms of absolute return as well as a risk premium correction. So, when we think about emerging markets, a literally has underperformed the developed market for the past 15 years. It was more pronounced over the past four years. As we stand today, the emerging market asset class trading at 13 times forward PE versus 20 times for US. So I think a weaker dollar environment could narrow some of that valuation gap, leading to a rerating of the emerging market. Slower US growth, in the landscape you laid out, will definitely be negative for the overall demand for emerging market, as well, but we are seeing a lot of industries, like we highlighted earlier, the technology innovation, the EV “smartification,” the consumer, online development — a lot of those are structural in nature. We do see, despite a slowdown in economic cyclical leave due to the policy that we potentially see, there are still positive underlying structure opportunities that we have. And for our emerging market opportunities, what we want to make sure is we focus on the balance sheet, quality management, because it is a bigger, Wild West market compared to US.
Thomas Mucha: Good companies with a structural tailwind behind them, right?
Bo Meunier: Exactly.
Thomas: Well, Bo, once again, Bo Meunier, portfolio manager on our EM equities team, thanks again for joining us on WellSaid. It's been great to have you here.
Bo Meunier: Thank you. Great to be here.
Views expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. For professional/institutional investors only. Your capital may be at risk. Podcast produced September 2025.
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